From: Isuck@fishing
Category: Fish Report
Date: 9/15/2003
Time: 10:29:15 PM
Ok, first Ill say that the Outer Banks MAY take a direct hit from Isabel. However, that probability is only 10-20%. The probability that it will hit anywhere between Myrtle Beach and Delaware is only 10-20%. That means that theres an 80-90% chance that it wont hit anywhere in that area. Thats a HUGE margin of error. Id love to gamble with you and have those odds. The fact is they cant predict Isabels path with any degree of certainty right now because there are too many unknowns. I predict that it will veer north and strike NYC, but that doesnt mean anything because its just a prediction. It doesnt mean it will happen. The current path prediction is based on a centerline of probability within a range of probabilities. The folks at NOAA are simply hedging their bets. Check out the link below for a graphic look at what Im talking about. If the folks at NOAA knew this far out where it was going, they would certainly tell us. But the fact is they dont know - only God knows. So lets prepare for the worse, and hope for the best.
Check this Link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303P+GIF/152058P.gif